{"id":2548,"date":"2020-03-11T10:31:31","date_gmt":"2020-03-11T09:31:31","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.acecredit.fr\/fr\/actualites\/le-marche-immobilier-va-s-assagir-en-2020_-n.html"},"modified":"2023-10-19T11:42:11","modified_gmt":"2023-10-19T09:42:11","slug":"le-marche-immobilier-va-s-assagir-en-2020_-n","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.acecredit.fr\/fr\/actualites\/le-marche-immobilier-va-s-assagir-en-2020_-n.html","title":{"rendered":"Le march\u00e9 immobilier va s\u2019assagir en 2020"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Xerfi Precepta croit en un ralentissement des transactions dans l&rsquo;ancien et \u00e0 un <strong>coup de frein sur la mont\u00e9e des prix de l&rsquo;immobilier en 2020 et 2021<\/strong>. Le march\u00e9 ne pourra pas compter sur de nouvelles baisses des taux du cr\u00e9dit immobilier pour tenir le rythme effr\u00e9n\u00e9 de l&rsquo;ann\u00e9e 2019.<\/p>\n<h2>Sons de cloche contradictoires<\/h2>\n<p>Le barom\u00e8tre MeilleursAgents s&rsquo;est fait l&rsquo;\u00e9cho d&rsquo;un mois de f\u00e9vrier exceptionnel en mati\u00e8re de hausse des prix de l&rsquo;immobilier\u00a0: +1,3% \u00e0 Paris, +0,7% dans les dix plus grandes villes et +0,50% pour le top 50. Une pouss\u00e9e rare \u00e0 cette \u00e9poque de l&rsquo;ann\u00e9e, <i>\u00ab\u00a0Laissant de fait augurer de fortes augmentations dans les mois \u00e0 venir\u00a0\u00bb,<\/i> pour le leader de l&rsquo;estimation immobili\u00e8re. Mais tout le monde ne partage cet avis. Xerfi Precepta a en effet publi\u00e9 quelques jours plus t\u00f4t ses perspectives de l&rsquo;immobilier de logements en France et en r\u00e9gions \u00e0 l&rsquo;horizon 2021, dans lequel le leader des \u00e9tudes \u00e9conomiques sectorielles <strong>pr\u00e9voit un ralentissement de la hausse des prix<\/strong>. Chiffres \u00e0 l&rsquo;appui\u00a0: l&rsquo;institut anticipe une augmentation dans l&rsquo;ancien de 2,5% en 2020 et 1,4% en 2021 contre 3% en 2019.<\/p>\n<h2>Finie la baisse continue des taux du cr\u00e9dit immobilier<\/h2>\n<p>Au milieu de tout cela, les taux du cr\u00e9dit immobilier qui font la pluie et le beau temps \u2013 en l&rsquo;occurrence le beau temps actuellement \u2013 aupr\u00e8s des acqu\u00e9reurs. Xerfi Precepta parle d&rsquo;un <i>\u00ab\u00a0Niveau plancher que les banques ne pourront assouplir davantage\u00a0\u00bb<\/i>. Apr\u00e8s une chute de 0,30 point en 2019, <strong>le taux moyen mesur\u00e9 par l&rsquo;Observatoire Cr\u00e9dit Logement\/CSA est stable \u00e0 1,13% depuis octobre dernier<\/strong>, ce qui ressemble effectivement \u00e0 un plancher infranchissable. D&rsquo;autant que les recommandations du Haut conseil de stabilit\u00e9 financi\u00e8re en d\u00e9cembre ont eu pour effet de r\u00e9duire la dur\u00e9e moyenne des emprunts \u00e0 19 ans en marginalisant les contrats sur plus de 25 ans, ce qui aurait d\u00fb m\u00e9caniquement nourrir la baisse de la moyenne des <a href=\"https:\/\/www.acecredit.fr\/fr\/barometres-taux.html\">taux du pr\u00eat immobilier<\/a>. En clair\u00a0: une (tr\u00e8s) l\u00e9g\u00e8re remont\u00e9e s&rsquo;est op\u00e9r\u00e9e depuis le d\u00e9but de l&rsquo;ann\u00e9e (+0,05 point sur 15 ans, +0,03 point sur 20 ans).<\/p>\n<h2>Le ressac des transactions immobili\u00e8res<\/h2>\n<p>Xerfi Precepta estime que le tour de vis du HCSF va se faire ressentir sur l&rsquo;activit\u00e9 du march\u00e9 immobilier et en effet, le nombre de pr\u00eats accord\u00e9s a recul\u00e9 de 13% depuis d\u00e9cembre dernier, pour une baisse du montant de production de cr\u00e9dits de 4%. De <i>quoi \u00ab\u00a0s&rsquo;orienter vers une relative accalmie\u00a0\u00bb<\/i> d&rsquo;apr\u00e8s l&rsquo;institut, qui table sur un recul des transactions dans l&rsquo;ancien en 2020 (-2,8%) puis en 2021 (-4,8%). On devrait ainsi <strong>repasser sous la barre du million de signatures enregistr\u00e9es<\/strong> en 2019. Du c\u00f4t\u00e9 du march\u00e9 neuf, Xerfi Precepta anticipe un recul des ventes de l&rsquo;ordre de 5% en 2020 avant un rebond en 2021 (+2%). \u00c0 moyen et long terme, l&rsquo;\u00e9tude entrevoit un regain de biens mis en vente par une population vieillissante, un ph\u00e9nom\u00e8ne qui sera de nature \u00e0 <i>\u00ab\u00a0apaiser les tensions sur les march\u00e9s de l&rsquo;immobilier\u00a0\u00bb<\/i>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Une \u00e9tude Xerfi Precepta table sur une baisse des transactions dans l\u2019immobilier ancien et une hausse des prix davantage contenue en 2020 et 2021. Elle s\u2019appuie sur des taux du cr\u00e9dit immobilier en stagnation.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":2549,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2548","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-actualites"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.8 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Le march\u00e9 immobilier va s\u2019assagir en 2020<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Une \u00e9tude Xerfi Precepta table sur une baisse des transactions dans l\u2019immobilier ancien et une hausse des prix davantage contenue en 2020 et 2021. 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